🌎 Macro Strategy & Geopolitical Risk

Expecting a pivot from ‘Big Beautiful Deficits’ to ‘Massive Magnificent Deficits’ as fiscal discipline vanishes… 1
Trump’s unusual silence on the Middle East and the bond market is a massive red flag; escalation risks are spiking in the deafening quiet… 2
Search interest for the Strait of Hormuz is vertical, trading like a penny stock on Google Trends—retail panic is peaking… 10
Attempting to hold a complex nation like Iran with only 50,000 troops is a tactical impossibility; geopolitical risks are currently being mispriced… 9

📉 Equity Market & Sentiment Analysis

We need this fear-driven pullback to reset sentiment; the AI bull cycle isn’t topped out, but the market was too crowded with bulls… 3
Looking at a rare 14-day streak where stocks closed lower than they opened—a technical signal absent even during the 2022 bear or the 2008 GFC… 6
The S&P 500 is currently 8% off its highs; eyes on 6000-6100 for strong support, with an ultimate bottom likely at 5900… 8
Statistical edge for 2027: The $SPX has only seen two consecutive red years since 1941, and the average bounce after a red year is a massive +25.8%… 15
Volatility and breadth triggers have already fired; we are now navigating the final positioning and sentiment hurdles… 12

Tesla is quietly accelerating its transition to true unsupervised operation; reports show Robotaxis running without safety drivers for $6.50 fares… 14
Memory stocks are under pressure as D5 16G spot prices have entered a correction phase since peaking on March 19… 11
Market chatter points to Claude Mythos outperforming expectations; still waiting for official confirmation on the first Blackwell-trained models… 7
Keep $FNMA and $FMCC on the watchlist; these are the legacy plays for those looking for Bill Ackman-style alpha… 13

BTC on-chain models suggest a looming bottom between 46k-54k, with the CVDD Floor Model currently sitting at 45.5k… 4