Fiscal deficits are about to shift from “Big Beautiful” to “Massive Magnificent” levels. 1
Market action is pricing in the future, as it always does. This explains why markets typically dump before recessions and recover before they officially end. 9
These fear-driven pullbacks are necessary to reset sentiment and create new buyers. When everyone is already positioned and bullish, there’s no one left to drive the market higher. This isn’t the top of the AI macro bull cycle. 5
I am watching a major support level for the S&P 500 at 6000-6100, with the ultimate bottom floor sitting at 5900. 15
The market is stuck in an incredibly rare streak: 14 trading days without a single session closing higher than it opened. This level of persistent selling pressure wasn’t even seen during the 2025 tariff crash, the 2022 bear market, or the GFC. 13
Historical data shows that since 1941, the $SPX has only had two consecutive red years (1973-1974 and 2000-2002). The average total return after a red year is +25.8%. 27
The current drawdown is following a clear logic: first the vol blow out, then breadth triggers, and now the market is grinding through positioning and sentiment hurdles. 23
BTC on-chain models suggest a bottom between 46k-54k. While capital has been exiting since November, the CVDD Floor Model provides a solid support level currently at 45.5k. 6
Memory stocks like Samsung (-3.9%) and SK Hynix (-5.6%) are diving as D5 16G spot prices corrected after peaking on March 19. 22
Tesla is likely accelerating the removal of safety drivers from its Robotaxi fleet. Field tests show unmanned vehicles completing 2.5-mile trips for $6.50 without any safety personnel onboard. 26