Current pullbacks driven by fear are necessary resets. Sentiment needs a flush to create new buyers. The AI bull cycle macro top is nowhere in sight. 5
Markets are forward-pricing machines. Recent downside is simply the market pricing in future expectations, as it typically front-runs both recessions and recoveries. 9
The sequence is unfolding from a Vol Blow Out to Breadth Triggers. Now navigating the positioning and sentiment hurdles. 23
S&P 500 is 8% off the highs. Watch for strong support at 6000-6100. The ultimate floor/bottom level sits at 5900. 15
BTC bottoming models point to the 46k-54k range. The CVDD Floor Model currently suggests a hard base at 45.5k as capital has been exiting since November. 6
$SPY and $QQQ have logged 14 consecutive trading days without closing higher than the open. This lack of intraday bid is an extreme outlier, surpassing streaks seen during the 2008 GFC, 2020 Covid, and 2022 bear markets. 13
Historical odds favor a massive recovery if 2026 ends red. $SPX has only had two consecutive red years since 1941. Average total return after a red year is +25.8%. 27
Fiscal outlook is shifting from standard deficits to “Massive Magnificent Deficits.” 1
Trump’s unusual silence this weekend is deafening. With no new headlines or comments on the bond market despite rising escalation risks, the quiet suggests a major shift is coming. 2
Google Trends for “Strait of Hormuz” are spiking like a parabolic penny stock, reflecting extreme retail fear/interest. 18