Oil prices are reversing higher at lightning speed. The Iran situation and Strait of Hormuz risks are flowing directly into the real economy, hitting household budgets as fuel relief vanishes. 30
Energy stocks are making historical runs. The US Energy Select Sector Index has rallied +43% over a record 14 consecutive weeks, fueled by war risks and a massive rotation out of software/AI. 30
Aluminum supply chain issues are starting to surface. Keep a close watch on $AA as the situation develops. 30
Volatility is reaching extreme historical percentiles. If the $VIX closes near 30 this month, it will mark the 30th highest monthly close in history, placing current fear levels in the top 93.1 percentile. 30
Hedge funds are aggressively hitting the sidelines. Net leverage plunged -3.1 points last week, marking the 5th largest weekly reduction in 5 years. Smart money is de-risking at a near-record pace. 30
2026 has been a total bloodbath for the Mag 7. $MSFT is leading the downside at -26%, followed by $META (-20%) and $TSLA (-20%). The leadership is crumbling. 30
Trade the market you have, not the one you want. Playing the cards dealt is the only way to survive this environment. 30
Critique of current forecasting models: predicting a third event based on only two historical data points is fundamentally unreliable compared to 30-year backtests. 30
Market logic on Nvidia rumors is flawed. A move from a 4-die to a 2-die design actually increases the demand for interconnects and memory; the current bearish spin makes no technical sense. 30
$MSFT is cementing its role as the enterprise AI interface. The new “Critique” system within M365 Copilot allows multi-model research, deepening their monetization moat. 30
Serious accounting red flags at $SOFI. Allegations suggest a $312M loan was booked as a sale rather than debt, potentially forcing a restatement that could wipe out $1B in EBITDA and tank capital ratios. 30
Aggressively cutting exposure in the semiconductor space. Reduced positions in $LITE, $MU, and $INTC due to toxic price action. Re-entry into $MU requires reclaiming the 50d EMA. 30
Buying the dip at critical support levels. Loading up on AI infrastructure including $MU, $AVGO, and $LITE at the “Liu Deyin line.” 30
Shift to defensive posture. Currently holding heavy cash and defense exposure to weather the volatility. 30
Speculative long position initiated in Gold ($GLD) despite the current macro uncertainty. 30