🌪 Macro & Market Volatility

  • I am pivoting to Hard Assets as the Fed signals it is willing to tolerate inflation while keeping its “toolbox” open. 13
  • I see the VIX hitting extreme levels; a close around ~30 represents the 30th highest monthly close in history, placing us in the top 93.1 percentile of volatility. 6
  • Systematic selling from CTAs may be hitting exhaustion after dumping -$85 billion in US equities over the last 30 trading sessions—the largest 30-day liquidation on record. 19
  • I am accumulating Gold ($GLD) here to test this support level. 9
  • I warn that a recession is imminent if oil prices are not stabilized; surging energy costs are a direct threat to the current economy. 29

💻 Semiconductor & AI Logic

  • I am dismissing rumors about Nvidia moving to a 2-die design as a bearish signal; lower chip integration actually spikes demand for interconnects and memory as inference requirements grow. 10 14
  • I am strictly focusing on AI Infrastructure and have prepared to buy at the “Liu Deyin line” support. 5
  • The AI sector is getting torched, with $SMH plunging -15% from all-time highs and $MU experiencing its most significant drawdown of the past year. 21 26 20
  • I view the narrative of Intel ($INTC) being a “safe” bet due to government backing as a dangerous capital trap. 24

🎯 Sector Rotation & Key Levels

  • Energy stocks are making history with the US Energy Select Sector Index gaining for 14 consecutive weeks (+43% rally) as investors rotate out of software and AI. 2
  • I see $MSTR starting to bottom out; the $100 psychological level and $BTC at $60k are the must-hold lines for a Bear Market Rally (BMR). 12
  • I am pinning mental buy levels for the 2026 dip: $NVDA (140-150), $GOOGL (240), $AMZN (180), $MU (260), $META (490), and $AVGO (250). 15
  • I’m monitoring $QQQ for a Double Top - Retest structure; buying the retest is the high-conviction play here. 25