SPX is tracking its worst month since September 2022. This historical parallel suggests we are nearing an absolute cycle bottom 21.
Prepare for massive capitulation or a violent ramp. SPY has closed red for five consecutive weeks, a rare event with only a 1.0% historical occurrence 24.
In this bear market regime, breakouts are failing consistently. The logic has flipped from a bull market where breakdowns were failed traps to one where upside moves lack follow-through 5.
Mid-term election years typically yield a median +39% forward return after the down year. However, the path involves a painful average drawdown of 16% from the highs before the recovery 23.
SMH is breaking down from critical levels with a downside target of 320-350. Semiconductors are the market’s final pillar; a full collapse in this sector is the prerequisite for a safe market bottom call 6.
Nasdaq distribution from 630 to 555 is now complete. With the downside target met, an orderly bounce is expected. Going long on calls here 30.
The current macro environment is toxic for growth: USD at YTD highs, yields breaking higher, and AI/Software stocks down 40% or more 16.
Crude oil futures are breaking out, signaling further market weakness. A 20% pop in oil typically forces the final market bottom 4.
US oil majors remain superior to European peers due to a lack of windfall taxes and protected capital. However, a structural mismatch remains as US light shale production doesn’t suit domestic heavy-oil refinery infrastructure 9.
Geopolitical headlines regarding war deals are currently a nothing burger. The market is waiting for a concrete US-Iran breakthrough to shift sentiment 13.
Differentiate between pullbacks and falling knives. Valid pullback entries require the stock to be in an uptrend, holding key moving averages (10, 20, 50, 200), and supported by a recent major catalyst 19.
RKLB is exhibiting a major trend shift, losing its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years 12.
Jerome Powell continues to sit on the fence, enabling reckless government spending via debt purchases while warning that the national debt is unsustainable 28.