🏎️ Semiconductors & AI Hardware

  • $AVGO valuation is back near tariff-war lows, offering a potential entry point for value seekers. 1
  • $RKLB acquisition of Mynaric is a massive strategic play, securing its first European footprint and integrating high-speed optical communications for $1.3B in satellite contracts; technically holding support at the 200-SMA ($57.37). 3 5
  • For ETF selection, SMH is the play for concentration, with NVDA at 17.7% and TSM at 11.4%, while SOXX provides more balance. 7
  • The Rubin Ultra design likely features a 2-die or 2+2 die configuration from TSMC, diverging from market expectations of a 4-die setup. 12
  • Channel checks in Shenzhen reveal a fire sale in DDR5 memory modules, with prices cratering 30% in a single week. 18

📊 Market Indices & Technicals

  • Closed shorts on $SPY today; watching for an open above $628 and a push to $645 to retest resistance off the support line. 2 11
  • $SPX is showing a “reverse mirror image” of July 2025 levels; witnessing a strange divergence where $VIX dropped 3x faster than the index (-1.40% vs -0.40%). 4 15
  • $QQQ monthly volume is on track to hit its highest peak since May 2022, signaling a major liquidity shift. 10
  • $USO momentum continues in after-hours; oil remains a regret for those who missed the bottom at -$37. 6

🧠 Strategy & Sentiment

  • Sentiment is bottoming as the Fear & Greed Index plunges into single digits. 19
  • Risk/reward in Tech remains attractive with token consumption accelerating and GPU rental prices going vertical. 16
  • Market psychology 101: Stocks need to stop going down before they can go up; don’t obsess over bottom-ticking to find your biggest gainers. 14 17
  • Speculative buy on $VCX looking for a one-day bounce despite the steep NAV premium. 8
  • Patience will be the biggest winner in 2026; keeping buy levels pinned, specifically watching for a $GOOGL dip to 240. 9