📈 Market Macro & Sentiment

  • $SPY at the $628 level officially triggers a 10% technical correction. This is standard market behavior, typically occurring every 12-18 months. 19
  • Sentiment has hit rock bottom with the Fear & Greed Index dropping into single digits, indicating extreme market panic. 5
  • Stop obsessing over catching the exact bottom. The most profitable trades rarely come from buying the absolute low tick. 3

🤖 AI Infrastructure & Hardware

  • Tech risk/reward is looking prime. Token consumption is accelerating and GPU hourly rental prices are going vertical, even as valuations remain attractive. 1
  • The scale of data centers is evolving at a breakneck pace. A 100MW facility was a massive outlier in 2015; now, building out entire data center infrastructures has become a core competency for chip designers like Cerebras. 14
  • Technical analysis of the Rubin Ultra suggests a strategic shift to a 2-die configuration compared to previous generations. 13

⚡ Semiconductor Sector Dynamics

  • Samsung Foundry is the ultimate beneficiary of TSMC’s capacity crunch. With TSMC 2nm booked solid through 2028, Nvidia and Tesla are already diverting overflow orders to Samsung. 27
  • DDR5 memory prices are in a total freefall, crashing 30% in a single week in markets like Huaqiangbei. Google’s TurboQuant algorithm is the culprit, drastically cutting memory needs and shifting the sector from shortage fears to a “price collapse.” 25
  • For semi-exposure, SMH and SOXX remain the go-to 1x ETFs, while SOXL is the primary vehicle for high-conviction leveraged plays. 15