🟡 Commodities & Macro Outlook

  • Four consecutive weeks of gold ETF outflows mark one of the best opportunities to add gold at historically oversold levels. This is a clear bottoming process in play. 1
  • Diesel prices at $5.45 a gallon are the real economic threat. They are hitting 2022 highs and will pressure consumer prices higher much faster than gas prices. 2
  • Keep an eye on the US Dollar; it’s facing a nasty rejection today which could shift the current macro narrative. 16
  • $USO flipped green and is hitting intraday highs. Oil is telling a very different story from the rest of the market right now. 29

📉 Market Technicals & Sentiment

  • Markets often bottom on the worst news. Rising on negative headlines is a major signal that a bottom is forming. 11
  • $SPY caught a bounce at the $555 support zone. I’m targeting 573-575 for the short term, but don’t fall for the first bounce—control your emotions. 15 9
  • This green move is still met with skepticism. While this week’s lows might be in, we are seeing short covering rather than enough net new longs to trigger a massive squeeze. 22 28

🏢 Sector Insights & Stock Analysis

  • Shorting $IWM because the January effect is over. It just rejected a prior ATH and is losing its 200D SMA; that multi-year consolidation breakout looks like a fakeout. 21
  • Berkshire B Shares are hitting multi-month highs relative to the S&P 500. Financials are making a stand while cash-heavy strategies finally start to see some relative strength. 4
  • Semis are acting well on intraday charts, but the daily charts are still suspect. I’m sitting and watching for now. 19
  • The Claude Code source code leak is a watershed moment for AI agents, mirroring Tesla’s 2014 decision to open-source its patents. 23