📈 Market Outlook & SPX Strategy

  • The lows for the year aren’t in yet. Anticipate at least a -15% peak-to-trough move this year, which conveniently targets the 6,000 area. 1
  • Daily RSI suggests we are nearing a near-term relief bounce, even if it’s not the ultimate bottom. 27
  • Current price action is a “reverse mirror image” of levels seen in July 2025. 16
  • It is time for technicians to watch for the Zweig Thrust signal to confirm momentum shifts. 24

🌍 Geopolitical Macro & Energy

  • Market has become immunized to Iranian threats; IRGC-related dips now last less than 30 minutes. Focus on April 6th as the potential window for a major trend reversal, mirroring last year’s timing. 9
  • Every headline is currently being used as a tool to hammer oil prices. The challenge is distinguishing legitimate news from coordinated narratives. 25
  • Surge in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is the clearest lead indicator that the U.S.-Iran conflict is approaching its end. 30
  • Forget the political noise; the market is the only real authority. Today’s bounce marks the start of the “money-picking” phase. 29

💻 Semiconductors & Big Tech

  • The roadmap for $AAPL, $GOOGL, and $META to dominate smart glasses depends entirely on $TSM and its advanced-node capacity for miniaturized, power-efficient compute. 5
  • $SMH tested and failed the 374-375 level initially but reclaimed it post-news. Plan to long $SOXL and $MU if $SMH holds above 375 at the close. 15

🚀 Small-Cap Speculation

  • Speculative long position in $VCX during after-hours. The stock is trading at a heavy discount and is primed for a sharp one-day pop. 3 26