The S&P 500’s 2.9% single-day jumpâa top-three performance compared to last yearâvalidates the strategy of staying fully invested. However, calling a full reversal is premature. Macro uncertainty persists despite the US-Iran ceasefire rumors. 22
Stop trying to time the market or short long-term uptrends. Betting against the structural upward bias of US equities is a low-probability play. Focus on long-term holding rather than chasing short-term volatility. 111920
To identify a legitimate market bottom, watch for high volume at lows, seller exhaustion (low volume on red days), and reclaims of key moving averages (10/20/50/200-day). 4
The market is currently cherry-picking news, ignoring Iranian officials’ statements that trust in negotiations is “zero.” This disconnect suggests a fragile sentiment rally. 17
Regardless of the Middle East outcome, Hard Assets and Latin America remain the structural alpha beneficiaries of this geopolitical shift. 14
USD/JPY hitting 160 is the danger zone. Expect imminent FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance at these levels. 21
Zhipu AI hitting a $250M ARR with a $1B year-end target is impressive, but the real story is margin compression. Gross margins for their cloud/API business are struggling in the single digits, and the high cost of GLM5 will test their ability to stay profitable. 25
Nvidia is reportedly scaling back the Rubin Ultra from a 4-die to a 2-die design for 2027. The original design pushed the reticle limit by 7.5â8x, proving too ambitious for the current supply chain. 27
Insilico Medicine’s $2.75B deal with Eli Lilly confirms its status as a top-tier AI biotech play. Their platform cuts clinical entry time by over 50%, with 28 drug candidates already generated. 18
Betting on top-tier CEOs like Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Alex Karp remains a core investment pillar for navigating the AI wave. 22
The labor market is effectively paralyzed. Excluding pandemic distortions, hiring hit a 10-year low in February, signaling deep structural weakness even before the war’s impact. 6
BlackSky ($BKSY) demand is “going gangbusters.” Their Gen-3 imagery is seeing massive sovereign demand directly attributed to military operations in Iran and Venezuela. 10
Micron ($MU) is making a savvy move by offering a premium to buy back high-interest debt (5.30%â6.05% notes) totaling $5.4B. This cleanup of 2031-2035 liabilities will significantly de-risk the balance sheet. 29
Biotech is currently coiled, showing a technical setup primed for massive volatility expansion. 8