📈 Macro Outlook & Market Sentiment

  • The S&P 500’s 2.9% single-day jump—a top-three performance compared to last year—validates the strategy of staying fully invested. However, calling a full reversal is premature. Macro uncertainty persists despite the US-Iran ceasefire rumors. 22
  • Stop trying to time the market or short long-term uptrends. Betting against the structural upward bias of US equities is a low-probability play. Focus on long-term holding rather than chasing short-term volatility. 11 19 20
  • To identify a legitimate market bottom, watch for high volume at lows, seller exhaustion (low volume on red days), and reclaims of key moving averages (10/20/50/200-day). 4
  • The market is currently cherry-picking news, ignoring Iranian officials’ statements that trust in negotiations is “zero.” This disconnect suggests a fragile sentiment rally. 17
  • Regardless of the Middle East outcome, Hard Assets and Latin America remain the structural alpha beneficiaries of this geopolitical shift. 14
  • USD/JPY hitting 160 is the danger zone. Expect imminent FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance at these levels. 21

🤖 Tech & AI Deep Dive

  • Zhipu AI hitting a $250M ARR with a $1B year-end target is impressive, but the real story is margin compression. Gross margins for their cloud/API business are struggling in the single digits, and the high cost of GLM5 will test their ability to stay profitable. 25
  • Nvidia is reportedly scaling back the Rubin Ultra from a 4-die to a 2-die design for 2027. The original design pushed the reticle limit by 7.5–8x, proving too ambitious for the current supply chain. 27
  • Insilico Medicine’s $2.75B deal with Eli Lilly confirms its status as a top-tier AI biotech play. Their platform cuts clinical entry time by over 50%, with 28 drug candidates already generated. 18
  • Betting on top-tier CEOs like Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Alex Karp remains a core investment pillar for navigating the AI wave. 22

🏢 Sector & Industry Analysis

  • The labor market is effectively paralyzed. Excluding pandemic distortions, hiring hit a 10-year low in February, signaling deep structural weakness even before the war’s impact. 6
  • BlackSky ($BKSY) demand is “going gangbusters.” Their Gen-3 imagery is seeing massive sovereign demand directly attributed to military operations in Iran and Venezuela. 10
  • Micron ($MU) is making a savvy move by offering a premium to buy back high-interest debt (5.30%–6.05% notes) totaling $5.4B. This cleanup of 2031-2035 liabilities will significantly de-risk the balance sheet. 29
  • Biotech is currently coiled, showing a technical setup primed for massive volatility expansion. 8