๐Ÿ“ˆ Market Macro & Index Analysis

  • NASDAQ showing resilient strength, surging nearly 2% despite negative headlines regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. 13
  • $VIX dropping below 25 (hitting 23.56-24.62) is providing much-needed tailwinds for the bulls. 2 20
  • $SPY has reached its average weekly range and is now facing its first test of the prevailing downtrend. Key level to watch is $652; it must hold to maintain current momentum. 26
  • S&P 500 reached the $6600 target. Expect a pullback toward $6520 to determine if this is a sustainable move or just a violent rally in a downtrend designed to trap latecomers. 30

๐Ÿ› ๏ธ Trading Strategy & Risk Management

  • Gap ups are opportunities to tighten stops and lock in profits on existing longs, not necessarily for chasing. 1
  • Abandon fixed price targets. Focus on trailing stops as price moves in favor, letting the market seek its own level while managing risk. 12
  • Volatility is currently cheap; Long strangles look like a high-conviction play in this environment. 27

๐ŸŽฏ Ticker-Specific Technical Logic

  • $XLE is serving as the primary market tell for war-related sentiment; watch the gap below the 10ema, with the 21ma as the next critical support. 3
  • $HOOD is signaling a daily reversal with follow-through. A close over the 10ema is essential to clear the immediate risk. 6
  • $TSLA and $TSLL are showing strength by gapping up over the daily 10ema. 5
  • $GOOGL is testing the top of its base and the 21ma. A daily close above these levels confirms the positive gap up. 7
  • $SNOW is attempting a reversal after a backtest of an old gap; a move over the 10ema is the trigger for a long bias. 10
  • $PNC is showing a constructive breakout, gapping up over the 100ma and its recent base. 8
  • $NTES is exhibiting early signs of a daily trend reversal. 21

๐Ÿ’ฐ Commodities & Forex

  • Gold has hit major trendline resistance, while Silver saw a massive 7% single-day rip. This comes as the DXY loses the 100 level. 23