Market shrugging off bad news is a major tell. When indices gap down on headlines (tariffs, Iran closing Strait of Hormuz) yet close green, that’s notable. NASDAQ’s action post-Trump press conference is a case in point. 1
Never underestimate the market’s ability to shrug off bad news. That behavior itself is a signal. 2
Space is the strongest high-beta theme through the pullback. Trump leading with NASA going to the moon, plus SpaceX IPO chatter and Amazon potentially buying Globalstar — repeated action in this group is hard to ignore. 3
Calls are more expensive than puts right now. Call-side IV skew is wild — almost 50% more for a lot of calls. Tried to find a condor but the skew makes it tough. 4
$SPY LEAP options (Jan 2028): calls pricing nearly double what puts are. On a 2-year horizon, options market still pricing WAY more upside than downside. If bears were offsides before, this is priced like the bulls are now. 5