✨ Original Viewpoints Digest

📊 Market setup and macro cross-currents

• Setups look attractive into the shortened week, but the tape is still headline-driven. The key swing factor is how USA / Iran peace negotiations resolve; if that de-escalation holds, many charts are already in position. 1

• Oil is being repriced lower on a geopolitical de-risking path. The read-through is that Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz under a U.S.-brokered framework, with a phased de-escalation and the early-April ceasefire potentially extended another 60 days while shipping normalizes. 16

• The real policy priority out of Washington is oil prices and interest rates, not satisfying neocon escalation fantasies. That frames recent geopolitical signaling as market-first, especially for energy and rates. 11

• “Vibecession” may be over, but “Permacession” is the bigger regime call. The implication is not a clean cyclical recovery, but a longer grind where weak sentiment gives way to structurally soft growth. 13

🤖 AI profit pool rotation

• $NVDA is on track to become the most profitable company in the world by 2027. The core thesis: the global profit pool is rotating toward AI compute, memory, and the platforms scaling on top of both. The posted stack ranks Nvidia ~$241B, Samsung ~$230B, SK Hynix ~$212B, $GOOGL ~$187B, $MSFT ~$174B, $AAPL ~$162B. 6

📈 Technical setups

• $QCOM may be setting up like other names that launched from big multi-year bases. The comparison made is $DELL + $ARM first, with Qualcomm potentially next, and Investor Day in June as a possible catalyst. 7

• $MSFT still has a valid setup, but price action is sluggish. The takeaway is constructive structure remains, even if the name is acting stubborn near the trigger zone. 18

• $MU still looks like a continuation trade after cooling off. The key context matters: the setup was flagged off the $400s a month ago, then rallied into the $800s recently. Last week’s pause is being framed as consolidation rather than breakdown. 19

• $AAOI is shaping up as a potential breakout setup into the new week. 20

🏦 Portfolio construction and brokerage strategy

• Modern Portfolio Theory is dismissed as structurally flawed because it relies on unrealistic assumptions about reality and rational behavior. The added jab is that the stock/bond relationship in practice undercuts the tidy diversification story often sold around it. 8

• For a stock brokerage business, direct connectivity to brokers is the stronger model. The edge is that orders can be sent directly into the Nasdaq and NYSE order books, effectively tapping near-unlimited liquidity. A second viable path is the mature introducing broker + white-label model; Tiger and Futu reportedly used that structure from founding through the six or seven years before their IPOs. 9

🚀 Space and engineering read-through

• The new SpaceX Starship splashdown footage is notable because the camera appears to track the vehicle mid-flight. That raises a real engineering question: remote control in an uncrewed scenario, or automated target tracking. The footage also clearly shows the gimbal adjustments of two sea-level engines, making it unusually informative beyond just spectacle. 3

• Starship is still extremely early-stage. Aside from the flip maneuver, nearly everything else is being framed as “early of the early,” which is a blunt reminder not to overread progress from isolated highlights. 4