📈 Market Regime & Bubble Risk

• Nasdaq 100 is frothy but not yet dot-com insane. It is trading 63% above its 200-week moving average, while in 2000 it reached 198% above trend. Key takeaway: bubbles can run far longer than expected, but mean reversion still matters. 1

• A few good days for shorts do not equal a full bear trend. Price needs to lose MA50 first before calling it a real downside regime. 2

• One common path into a bear trend: chop around current levels, burn time, let moving averages catch up, then break lower. The cited analogue is the post-Oct 2025 pattern. 3

• VIX around 20 still signals residual fear. Cash discipline matters here; keeping roughly 20% cash is the preferred positioning. 4

🚀 Single-Stock & Sector Plays

• $NVDA pullback zone: sub-$200s, preferably near $190, is the desired entry. Upside roadmap stays aggressive: fresh ATHs later this year, base case $240, bull case $275, and ultra FOMO bull case $300. 5

• The 2022 selloff is framed as a classic add-on opportunity in hindsight. Fundamental target prices diverged sharply from market price in 2022, but that dislocation created the best forward return window unless liquidity was needed by January 2023. 6

• Selling calls is being used to recover premium while still holding LEAPS for long-term upside. Net stance remains bullish, with options used as cash-flow and exposure management rather than a bearish exit. 7

• NBIS is viewed as a long-term hold with tradeable volatility. The preferred playbook: take profit into spikes, buy pullbacks, respect pre-set target levels, and control position size. 8

• Insider purchases at $14 and $15 are treated as a useful accumulation signal, but only if the underlying story is still credible. 9

• $TE G2 Austin is strategically important because domestic solar-cell production is the real bottleneck. Solar cells are the power-generating core of a module, so progress there makes the U.S. solar manufacturing buildout look tangible rather than headline-only. 10

🛰️ IPO & Valuation Watch

• SpaceX IPO setup looks historic but valuation-heavy. Key terms: ticker $SPCX, expected IPO price $135/share, expected raise $75B, expected valuation ~$1.75T-$1.77T, expected Nasdaq debut June 12. The size is the headline; the valuation is the risk. 11

₿ Crypto Sentiment & Narrative Risk

• $BTC permabull calls are being mocked as price-insensitive. The critique: calling 126k, 110k, 100k, 90k, 80k, 70k, and 60k all “great buys” implies the same line will likely be repeated at $50k too. That is narrative loyalty, not price discipline. 12

🌍 Geopolitics & Policy Path

• The Taco scenario is still treated as likely because failing to follow through would make the past two months of ceasefire look meaningless and politically humiliating for Trump. The logic is reputation-driven: giving Bibi, Graham, and neocons room to gloat would be too costly for an aging power-maximalist president. 13