📈 Trading Setups & Risk Control

• $ASTS and $TE are being framed as bottoming plays. The setup is a classic “bottoms for the win” call, but the follow-through still needs confirmation. 1

• Trump trade: the key pain level is the 50EMA. That makes the 50-day EMA the line to watch for squeeze risk or breakdown confirmation. 2

• Full-porting Microsoft is bad position sizing. Even with a high-conviction name, going all-in is unnecessary. For options, scaling out matters more. The longer the hold, the more passive and exposed the position becomes. 3

• Short-term drawdowns should be matched against the actual investment horizon. If the holding period is only a few weeks, frustration makes sense; if not, the trade should be judged on a longer cycle. 4

• $AMD was treated as a long-term entry but sized like a left-side trade. Entry was 453, position was less than 2%, with a plan to add on weakness. The stock then ripped, with after-hours trading close to 500, so the small position could be cleared decisively once the target was hit. 5

🤖 AI Adoption & Software Moat

• The real understanding of the AI revolution has not broadened much versus a year ago. Many users only touch the surface of AI, while the market keeps chasing rotating bottlenecks instead of thinking through the industry’s structural direction. 6

• The enterprise AI winner may ultimately be software. Executives are not going to review models through Python or Databricks code. Final outputs still flow into Excel and PowerPoint. Internal communication still runs through Teams. Legal still depends on Word. That makes Microsoft hard to displace, and positions it as the software king in the AI cycle. 7

• In Canadian banking and fintech workflows, Excel remains deeply embedded. That is a real-world signal that spreadsheet-native enterprise software is still sticky, even when modeling tools sit elsewhere in the stack. 8

🏗️ AI Capex Rotation

• Hyperscalers including $ORCL, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, and $AMZN keep ramping Capex and financing aggressively, but the better trade may be downstream. Instead of fighting the names funding the buildout, capital should rotate toward where the Capex lands: $VRT for data center power and cooling, $ETN for electrification and data center power distribution, and $PWR for grid and data center engineering. 9

🏛️ Market Structure & IPO Mechanics

• The largest IPO in history moving straight into 24/7 trading creates a new market-structure test. Continuous trading right after a mega-listing could amplify price discovery, liquidity gaps, and retail-driven volatility. 10