🚀 SpaceX / $SPCX Valuation & Capital Moves

• SpaceX / xAI / Cursor: The capital-markets playbook looks aggressive. In April, after SpaceX had just merged with xAI at a $1.2 trillion valuation, it locked in Cursor first. Now, after listing, it can use nearly $3 trillion in all-stock market cap currency to close the deal. That is classic expectation-pumping plus acquisition firepower. 1

• $SPCX: The IBKR margin requirement staying at 100% matters. It signals broker-level risk control is still tight, even while the stock is being treated like a crown-jewel momentum vehicle. 2

• $SPCX: The valuation debate is getting absurd enough to become the trade itself. Calling it cheap at 0.3x Price-to-Cosmos using Einstein’s relativity is sarcasm, but the subtext is clear: price discovery has detached from normal comps. 3

• $SPCX: Only Google, Apple, Nvidia are left to pass, despite just $18 billion in annual sales. That gap between revenue base and mega-cap ranking is the core valuation red flag. 4

🧩 BitMine Structure: $BMNP vs $BMNR

• $BMNP / $BMNR: $BMNP is not the same trade as owning $BMNR common. $BMNP is BitMine’s new 9.50% preferred stock, more like the income/yield layer. $BMNR is the ETH upside layer. For bulls, the structure matters because the cap stack splits yield exposure from crypto beta. 5

📱 $META, Threads & X Engagement Reality Check

• $META / Threads / X: The claim that Threads has the same MAUs as X looks hard to buy. The engagement gap is the tell. If Musk posted the same kind of update on X, engagement would likely be far higher within two to three hrs. The follower base explains part of it: @elonmusk has 240M+ followers versus Zuck’s 5.5M followers. 6

• Threads vs X: MAU parity claims look inflated. Threads being on the same active-user level as X does not pass the smell test. 7

📊 Trading Tactics & Technical Setups

• Account sizing / options: Once account size is large enough, the cleaner play is often commons instead of calls or puts. Options still have a role, but more as hedges around common stock exposure than as the main weapon. 8

• $CRWV: Dip-buying worked cleanly. Entries were added down to $92 last week, and the stock was pushing $115 this morning. That is a strong swing-trade markup from support into momentum. 9

• $CRWV: The setup improved after reclaiming all major moving averages and filling the small gap. Raising stops makes sense after the chart flipped back above key trend levels. 10

• $CRWD: The $700 roll is working, so stops are being moved up. Momentum is being protected instead of chased blindly. 11

• $DBA: Daily chart is showing reversal signs. This is being treated as a slower-moving investment/spec/gamble position, helped by an OK dividend. 12

• $COST: Still basing. No breakout yet, but the consolidation remains intact. 13

🏦 Fed, Risk-On & Market Tone

• FOMC: The market is not panicking. It is coiling. $SPY flat, $QQQ soft, $IWM green, crypto slightly red, and $SPCX hype still alive. The real question is whether the Fed kills the risk-on trade or blesses it. 14

• FOMC tomorrow: The setup is about tone, not the rate decision. First meeting with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Decision at 2:00 PM ET, presser at 2:30 PM ET, expected hold at 3.50%-3.75%. Bull case: Warsh sounds calm, no hike threat, and the dot plot does not spook risk assets. 15