📈 Original Viewpoint Roundup

Macro & Market Tape

• FOMC was likely not as hawkish as the market narrative suggested. The setup looked overly crowded on the bearish side: roughly a 70/30 split negative vs positive, yet the Nasdaq had already reclaimed all losses and pushed higher. Bearish consensus looked stretched. 1

• A cleaner risk-on leg likely needs $DXY to reject near $100 again. Dollar weakness remains the trigger for a potential face-ripping rally in equities. 2

• Short-term tape bias stays constructive into the week’s close. FOMC / Warsh risk is cleared, the market is closed Friday, and the US / Iran MOU signing adds a fresh catalyst for a final pump. 3

AI / Software Positioning

• In the AI-driven software selloff, adding Microsoft looks cleaner than adding IGV. MSFT has stronger certainty because it is unlikely to be replaced by AI and is more likely to be an AI beneficiary. IGV owns a basket of software names, including companies that may actually get disrupted by AI, so the ETF’s diversification may dilute quality instead of reducing risk. 4

AI Infrastructure Stocks

• NBIS has been executing better, while CRWV carries more concern because it keeps increasing borrowing. Positioning preference stayed with CRWV due to past upside from 50+ to 180, disciplined profit-taking on half the position, and the belief that the U.S. government will support CRWV. Still, NBIS looks like the cleaner momentum name now. 5