📈 Tactical Setups

• $ASTS and $RKLB look primed for a near-term relief bounce. $ASTS has been down 40% and is sitting right above the 200dma; $RKLB has been down 30% and is sitting right above the 50dma. The setup is classic oversold-to-key-MA bounce watch for next week. 1

🧠 AI & Semiconductor Stack

• The race to the first $10T company is really a race to control the base layers of the economy. $NVDA owns the AI accelerator layer. $TSLA owns EV and autonomy. $AMZN owns cloud and logistics. $GOOGL owns search, data, and TPU. The key point: trillion-dollar upside comes from owning infrastructure layers others build on. 2

• AI memory is turning into one of the biggest profit pools in semis. HBM has upgraded memory from a cyclical commodity into qualification-gated AI infrastructure. $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix are expected to generate nearly $1T of operating income by 2029. 3

• The GLM hype should not be dismissed as automatically paid promotion. Seeing major English-language accounts discuss GLM leaves three choices: ignore it, buy HK:2513, or claim everyone was paid. The first two are normal sensitivity/risk-preference differences; the third is just bad signal processing. 4

🪙 Crypto Infrastructure

• The anti-$ETH bear case is stale because it keeps attacking the 2021 Ethereum: NFT gas wars, high fees, monkey pictures, and “just use a database.” That is lazy now. The real thesis is that Ethereum is evolving into a global settlement layer for digital money. 5

• The most boring crypto use case may be the most real one: stablecoins. Digital dollars move 24/7, with no bank hours, no weekend delay, no wire cutoff, and no “3 business days.” That is why $ETH matters: Ethereum is infrastructure for settlement, not just a casino. 6

• The cleaner crypto bet is boring institutional infrastructure, not the next 100x meme coin. $LINK is data/oracles. $AAVE is lending/borrowing. $ONDO is tokenized treasuries/RWA. $ETH is settlement/collateral/staking. $COIN is the regulated access point. 7

🌍 Macro & Inflation

• Inflation cooled, but prices did not roll back. A $100 basket in January 2020 now costs about $128. If prices had followed a steady 2% inflation path, it would be about $113. That permanent gap explains why consumers still feel inflation even after the inflation rate falls. 8

• The bullish market stance after the CPI print can survive geopolitical noise because U.S. presidential will still matters. The key framework: do not ignore the personal intent of the U.S. president. The same logic applies to Warsh’s comments—downplay the literal content and focus more on his background and positioning. 9