📈 Macro & Market Regime

• USD/EUR looks tactically bearish. The move higher is stretched inside a rising channel, and the latest push looks more like an exhaustion leg than a clean new impulse. Translation: upside momentum may be running out of gas. 1

• Equities look “cooked,” but the policy put may stay alive into the midterms. Trump and the Fed are expected to keep markets propped up, with the real bear market penciled in for autumn 2026 and lasting into late 2027 or early 2028. 2

• Today’s Korea-led selloff is not just about the headline tax-reform rumor. The deeper tape pressure comes from five overlapping macro/liquidity lines: Warsh Fed repricing, possible DXY upside breakout, quarter-end pension rebalancing + CTA mechanical flows, AI token economics audits, and Treasury TGA rebuild + issuance liquidity drain. 3

🇨🇳 China Macro & Fiscal Policy

• Bloomberg’s “China deficit cut” framing looks like headline bait. The real issue is slower-than-expected fiscal spending, tied to project approvals/starts, strong Q1 data, and resilient Q2 exports/production reducing urgency for stimulus. Revenue is mixed: taxes up 4.4%, VAT +6.2%, personal income tax +12%, stamp duty +35.8%, but consumption tax -3.1% and corporate income tax +0.2% show uneven momentum. 4

🇰🇷 Korea / KOSPI Selloff

• KOSPI selling pressure is being driven by positioning, not just headlines. Korean leverage trading has reached excessive levels; profit-taking is hitting ahead of Micron earnings as buyside expectations look crowded; lawmakers discussing new taxes adds another overhang. 5

🤖 AI Infrastructure & Semiconductors

• $PLTR pushing Ontology deeper into commercial AI infrastructure is the key read-through from the $ZETA partnership. Zeta is using Ontology to build a “next generation marketing environment” that captures AI upside while limiting known risks. The setup also creates a potential $100M+ annual revenue opportunity over time for Zeta via eligible Foundry customers. 6 7

• $TSM may be leaning into pricing power. Reported 5–10% price hikes across advanced nodes, including 7nm, are framed as management chasing the same pricing upside memory peers have enjoyed. That keeps the semi pricing-cycle narrative alive beyond memory. 8

⚡ Short-Term Trading Setups

• $SPCX is still “overvalued garbage,” but the trade may be setting up for a short-term bounce because it is deeply oversold. Bad asset, possible tactical trade. 9

📊 Market Methodology

• Technical analysis is broader than chart doodles. The real edge is studying market behavior and participant behavior. All chartists are technicians, but not all technicians need to be chartists. 10