📉 Equity & Trading Read-Throughs

• $NKE is still in a brutal drawdown tape. The -5% after-hours move reads less like a one-off reaction and more like another leg in a nonstop sequence of selloffs. 1

• Blindly shadowing Michael Burry is a bad setup. His recent hit rate is framed as worse than his reputation suggests, so the better edge is to trade a personal plan/system instead of chasing guru signals. 2

• $SPX technicals are being framed as an unfinished bullish candle setup: “two soldiers done,” with “one more to go.” Translation: the move is not confirmed yet; one additional leg/candle is still needed. 3

🧠 Semis, AI Infrastructure & Supply Chain

• TSMC $TSM is moving aggressively on advanced packaging. The key tell is CoWoS capacity targeting 2,000kpcs in 2027F, up from 1,100kpcs in 2026F. The logic is defensive: lock down the packaging bottleneck before competing technologies eat into the moat. 4

• Semiconductor bottlenecks remain a structural overhang, but the crisis timing is unclear. The important read: the issue is already well known and actively managed, so the market risk is not the existence of bottlenecks—it is whether/when they escalate into a true crunch. 5

• LTAs alone are weak protection in a downcycle because past cycles showed they can get tossed when demand rolls over. Pre-payments and co-payments for fabs/equipment are cleaner mechanisms because they add real commitment and reduce walk-away risk. 6