BEA PCE revision may cool inflation data before fundamentals

📌 Original Viewpoints Summary

PCE inflation could get an artificial tailwind from methodology changes rather than real disinflation. The BEA will revise the PCE Price Index methodology on September 30, alongside the annual GDP revision, with historical data revised back to 2021. The key affected buckets are computer software, legal services, and portfolio management / investment advisory services. The core takeaway: the numbers may cool first because the statistical framework changes first. 1

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