📈 AI Market Rotation

• The next leg of the AI trade may shift from AI builders to AI adopters. If that rotation kicks in, the market could mint a new batch of monster stocks and winners. Timing feels close. 1

• July’s second major market checkpoint is the earnings season for hyperscale CSPs — Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta. Their results have become a core proxy for AI commercialization, almost as important as large-model ARR. The key read-through: whether AI demand growth, revenue quality, and unit economics can outrun capex, depreciation, energy costs, and financing needs. 2

🇨🇳 China Macro & A-Share Read-Through

• China’s Q2 GDP at 4.3% needs to be read with caution. It is far below the 4.6% print in 2024 Q3 that triggered the 924 policy pivot, even allowing for base effects. The deflator has climbed to 0.7%, implying H1 nominal growth at 5.4%, but A-share interim results and tax revenue may not validate that number. 3

• The official line says the economy is stable and only petrochemicals and coal production were hit harder. The pushback: calling “other sectors normal” ignores historically weak prints in infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, retail sales, and property investment. Excluding the pandemic period, several indicators are already at record-low levels; even including the pandemic shock, real estate investment is still historically weak. 4

🧠 China Semiconductor & CXMT IPO

• CXMT could become an A-share heavyweight, but the math is demanding. IPO price is 8.66 yuan/share, issuance is 6.688 billion shares, equal to roughly 10.00% of post-IPO share capital, with CICC granted an over-allotment option of up to 15.00%. Excluding the green shoe, pre-listing market cap is about 579.2 billion yuan. To reach 2 trillion yuan, the stock would need to run close to 30 yuan. 5

💻 IBM Earnings Shock

• IBM’s one-day crash of over 25% is not just a headline selloff. The company pre-released an 8-K and investor letter one week before formal earnings, effectively guiding the market to a weak Q2. Revenue of about $17.2 billion missed consensus, and adjusted EPS also came in below expectations. The read-through: even with software still growing, the miss was big enough to trigger a historic de-rating. 6

⚡ Sector Momentum & Cross-Market Setup

• Solar is starting to see more and more headlines, but the cycle still looks early. This has the feel of a sector narrative beginning to wake up before the broader tape fully prices it. 7

• KOSPI strength may feed into U.S. markets and support continuation in the next session. The setup is basically looking for Korea’s risk-on move to bleed into the U.S. tape. 8

• KOSPI is trading like a high-volatility market regime, with daily moves feeling like circuit breakers either up or down. The signal is less about direction and more about extreme tape sensitivity. 9