📈 AI Capex Cycle

• The “AI spend is slowing” narrative does not square with today’s capex signals. OpenAI, Tesla, and Google all significantly raised capex guidance on the same day, pointing to continued AI infrastructure acceleration rather than a downshift. 1

☁️ Google Cloud / TPU Thesis

• $GOOG is hard to fade when cloud growth is this strong. Yes, capex scrutiny is elevated, but the cloud revenue trend is the kind of setup that would normally be treated as highly bullish for application software names. 2

• Google Cloud looks less like a pure cloud business and more like a combined Nvidia + cloud compute platform. The key tell: Google did not disclose the detailed TPU share of cloud revenue, but explicitly said “Cloud generates product revenues primarily from the sale of TPU systems”—implying TPU already accounts for the majority of GCP revenue, not Nvidia GPU resale. 3

🔌 AI Hardware Supply Chain

• MLCCs are moving into strategic-supply territory for Big Tech. Samsung Electro-Mechanics only identified its new MLCC supply-agreement counterparty as a “large global company”, which strongly implies MLCCs are now being locked up through LTAs by Big Tech customers as AI hardware demand tightens supply chains. 4