AI Trade Rotates From Semis to Software as Nvidia Tests Support

🚀 Space / Aerospace

SpaceX Starship got a real tailwind: the FAA confirmed no mishap investigation is needed after Flight 13. But that is not a free pass for Flight 14. If the next mission targets orbit and tries a “chopsticks” catch of Starship, it becomes a new high-risk profile. The FAA would still need to approve the updated flight-safety analysis and license modification. Earliest aggressive window: after late August. 1
$SPCX valuation is starting to look less crazy to long-duration bulls: it now trades at 10x 2028 sales. The bull case is not just rockets. The deeper thesis is low-cost orbital access + abundant solar power + space-based computing, eventually enabling orbital data centers. 2

The current tape is showing a clean rotation pattern: when semis dump, software catches a bid; when semis bounce, software gets sold. Today’s portfolio read-through: even with heavy $NVDA, mid-size $MU, and small $MRVL positions under pressure, gains in heavy Microsoft and Google, plus mid-size Sofi and Palantir, and small Zeta, kept the account slightly green. That is classic intra-AI rotation, not broad risk-off. 3
$NVDA is sitting on a key line where bulls need to show up immediately. The setup is simple: defend the level, or the chart loses structure. 4

$ADBE is improving technically: price is above the 10/21/50MA and now testing the 100MA. No stop changes yet, which keeps the trade disciplined instead of chasing the move. 5
A clean technical filter: if price cannot reclaim MA10, skip it. This avoids a lot of noisy narratives and keeps the process price-first. 6

Jersey Mike’s may be a good business, but “good” does not automatically justify any price. The setup is being compared to $SPCX / $SKHY-type post-hype drops, implying fresh IPO enthusiasm could be setting up late buyers for downside. 7

Leveraged ETFs are brutal when timing is off: $SOXL -62% from ATH and $KORU -75% from ATH. These 3x ETFs can work beautifully if bottoms are timed well, but late chasers get punished hard by drawdown and compounding decay. 8

Sideways consolidation can last weeks or even years. Holding for only three months means seeing just one earnings report, which is not enough time to validate many theses. Before cutting a position out of impatience, the harder question is: where can that capital be redeployed with higher conviction? 9

Trump’s comment that talks with Iran are going “well” and that “something may happen” reads like a market-sensitive pivot. The implication: the market selloff may already be creating political pressure, pushing the administration toward softer geopolitical messaging. 10