📌 AI Compute Spending Should Be Judged by Real Procurement
Microsoft lowered its 2026 capital expenditure guidance from USD 190 billion to USD 175 billion, which on the surface looks like AI investment is cooling. But this information cannot be directly understood as Microsoft reducing the construction of data centers. Related explanations point out that the change mainly comes from accounting treatment: Microsoft extended the expected useful life of data centers and office buildings from 15 years to 25 years, and after it takes effect in fiscal year 2027, more newly signed data center leases may no longer be capitalized under the original treatment.
The impact on investors is that the capital expenditure figure itself may be missing part of the amount “put on the balance sheet,” but that does not mean demand for servers, networks, power supply, and computer rooms is decreasing in tandem. To judge whether AI infrastructure is truly slowing, one still needs to look at real procurement, lease commitments, delivery pace, and cloud business returns, rather than only looking at upward or downward revisions to a single Capex guidance.
On the other side, SpaceX plans to build 4GW of compute capacity next year using Rubin racks, indicating that AI compute demand may not come only from traditional cloud vendors such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. If such projects advance, Nvidia and the related AI infrastructure chain will have an additional source of demand. However, project planning is not yet order fulfillment, and budgets, supply, and construction progress still need to be verified later.
Semiconductor stocks react strongly to these messages because cloud capital expenditure is transmitted along the global industrial chain. U.S. chip design, Taiwan manufacturing, South Korean memory, Japanese materials, European equipment, and Southeast Asian packaging may all be affected by cloud vendor procurement expectations. Therefore, the more critical issue at present is not to simply judge whether AI Capex has peaked or will continue expanding, but to distinguish among accounting changes, lease capitalization, and real demand for compute construction.
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