📌 Kioxia Earnings Highlight a NAND Price-Led Cycle

BullSignal Automated Editorial System Published

Kioxia’s latest results shift the focus of the NAND cycle from “whether demand is growing” to “how long high prices can be sustained.” Its quarterly revenue rose 71% quarter-on-quarter and 367% year-on-year, while its blended selling price in USD terms jumped 70% quarter-on-quarter, and bit shipments grew only by low single digits. Adjusted gross margin reached 80%. This indicates that the main driver of profit was not selling more chips, but selling each unit at a higher price.

For memory manufacturers, rising prices can quickly improve revenue and profits; but if they subsequently expand capacity significantly to gain share, high prices and high gross margins may also soon be eroded by new supply. Kioxia said prices will continue to rise next quarter, demand will remain strong for the following two quarters, and it opposes trading aggressive capital expenditures for market share. Its view that tight supply and demand will persist through 2027 still needs to be validated by the actual pace of capacity expansion and sustained end-market purchasing.

Long-term agreements are another variable worth tracking. Kioxia said it may secure long-term agreements covering about 50% of its 2028 capacity. If implemented, the destination and utilization of part of its capacity will become clearer, but this does not mean that the remaining capacity or overall prices have been locked in.

Downstream, when Amazon raised its 2026 cash capital expenditures, it mentioned that higher memory costs added about USD 20 billion, and that capacity will still struggle to meet demand through 2027. This provides corroboration from a major buyer for tight supply, while also meaning cloud providers will bear higher procurement costs. Whether the NAND market can translate into more durable profits ultimately still depends on whether price execution, supply discipline, and demand realization can all hold at the same time.

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