📌 How HBM Volume Growth Reshapes DRAM Equipment Demand
The significance of growing HBM demand lies not only in how much more product memory manufacturers sell, but also in the greater wafer capacity it consumes. According to relevant estimates, the wafer capacity required per bit of HBM is approximately three times that of DDR5. Even if Micron’s market share remains at around 21%, and its HBM shipments grow by another approximately 50% from 2026 to 2027, industry demand could approach 7 exabytes. Demand growth is therefore amplified into a more pronounced consumption of effective DRAM capacity.
This transmission chain extends the focus from memory prices to equipment investment. HBM is not simply replacing traditional DRAM: when total capacity is limited, higher wafer intensity means manufacturers need more equipment and more complex processes to meet incremental demand, giving related capital expenditures a better chance of remaining resilient. DRAM equipment revenue is heading toward new highs, corroborating this direction, but equipment suppliers are not benefiting evenly.
The rising EUV adoption rate is one of the clearer elements of the current divergence. ASML is continuously gaining DRAM equipment share; AMAT’s share is broadly stable, while Lam and KLA are more likely to benefit in phases, and TEL is lagging and has seen share losses. The key issues that need to be verified going forward are not only whether HBM shipment targets can be met, but also whether memory makers can continuously translate high wafer consumption into equipment orders, and whether EUV penetration can continue to rise.
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