📌 TSMC’s fab expansion still cannot resolve the AI chip testing bottleneck
The supply constraints for AI chips appear to extend not only to advanced process manufacturing, but also to testing. TSMC is simultaneously building nearly 20 fabs domestically and overseas at a much faster pace than before, while purchasing manufacturing equipment in advance; on the other end, WinWay and Chunghwa Precision both plan to increase testing socket capacity by about 50% before 2027.
The expansion of front-end manufacturing means TSMC must first bear higher spending on equipment and fab construction, and related equipment suppliers may also receive more orders. But capacity expansion does not mean capacity is immediately available. A shortage of construction workers remains a clear constraint, potentially extending the actual ramp-up time after fab delivery and equipment installation. Even if equipment procurement is brought forward significantly, supply release still depends on whether construction, installation, and staffing can be completed as planned.
The expansion on the testing side indicates that after chips are manufactured, back-end validation and testing may also become constraints on delivery speed. The plans of the two companies reflect strong demand, but what is currently visible is target capacity, rather than capacity already brought online. For the supply chain, what truly needs to be watched is the construction progress at these stages and whether the new capacity can be converted into deliverable products on schedule.
Therefore, whether the tightness in AI chips eases cannot be judged only by the number of fabs or capital expenditures; it also depends on whether front-end manufacturing and back-end testing can keep pace at the same time. The available information consists mainly of second-hand accounts and still requires verification through company announcements, capital expenditure documents, and actual production data.
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