🌍 Geopolitical & Macro Impacts

  • “Boots on the ground” is inevitable, risking further destabilization 9.
  • Marines are deploying to Iran, signaling an escalation of conflict 10.
  • US appears to be losing control of the oil market; prices surged above $99/barrel, up nearly +10% this week 12.
  • A prime opportunity emerges to long oil companies if current geopolitical tensions de-escalate within the next 10 days 16.
  • Odds of a Democrat sweep in midterm elections rose by 10 percentage points to 49% since the Iran war commenced on February 28th 18.
  • The 10Y Note yield has climbed nearly +35 basis points since the Iran war started on February 28th, pushing mortgage rates higher and pricing out 2026 rate cuts 21.
  • The S&P 500 has shed -$2 trillion in market cap since the Iran war began 24.

⚙️ Tech & Semiconductor Outlook

  • An investment framework offers plays within $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang’s five-layer cake strategy, including $CEG and $VST for the “Energy (The Fuel)” layer 2.
  • NVIDIA’s upcoming Rubin/Feynman platforms will shift to M10 CCL and orthogonal backplanes to address transmission bottlenecks, moving away from legacy architecture 20.
  • NVIDIA is diversifying its M10 supply chain, introducing new suppliers from China and Taiwan for testing, reducing sole reliance on EMC (Taiflex) 20.
  • WUS is poised for dominance, with testing set to begin in 1Q26 driven by its technological edge 20.

📈 Market Structure & Trading Insights

  • Despite current pressures, $SPY and $QQQ remain above their 200-day moving averages, raising questions of true resilience versus a self-fulfilling prophecy 22.
  • Watch for $SPY and $QQQ to test the 200dma next week, followed by a potential bounce. The bounce’s strength will determine if it signals a true bottom or merely a dead cat bounce before further declines 29.
  • A practical trading philosophy: if an unconventional technical analysis method yields correct outcomes and profits, it is valid. Focus ultimately on profitability 19.
  • In the current market, mitigate risk by reducing position size, trading frequency, and screen time to preserve capital for future opportunities 26.

📊 Stock Valuation & Performance

  • $META trades below 13x 2028 operating profits, despite projected ~20% revenue CAGR over the next three years with ~35% operating margins 4.
  • $SHEL has surpassed its 26-year high since 2000, marking a potentially significant market event 15.
  • $MELI compounded revenue at ~50% CAGR for five years (6x growth), yet its stock price has shown no corresponding movement 23.