📌 X Insight Update[x_fin] (2026/07/18 23:48)
- Current weakness is not a full-market washout. $SPX is only down 2% from ATHs, which is barely a routine move. A practical regime map: -2% to -3% = normal week-to-week noise, -5% to -7% = pullback, -10% = correction, -15% = deeper correction, -20% to -25% = bear market.
📌 X Insight Update[x_fin] (2026/06/20 22:02)
- $SPX has had only 7 red years on a total-return basis since 1981, an 85% win rate across 45 samples. The odd part: 6 of those 7 red years landed in even years. Seasonality still leans bullish long term, but even-year risk keeps showing up in the tape. [1](https://x.
📌 X Insight Update[x_fin] (2026/05/16 04:33)
- Mortgage rates are at risk of repricing materially higher, with 7.5-8% mortgage rates potentially coming soon. The clear takeaway: anyone who locked in or refinanced during 2020-2021 caught a huge break, because today’s rate regime looks structurally worse for new borrowers.