📈 Valuation & Momentum Setups

• Software names with forward PE 490 this year, 150 next year, and 70 the year after still look stretched. Even with fast growth, that multiple stack is too rich and leaves little room for execution risk. 1

• $NBIS showed why not every sharp pullback is a breakdown. The backtest near $183 turned into new highs in the $270s. $ASTS may be in a similar backtest pattern after dropping from the $130s and potentially bouncing near $100. 2

• Bag-holder behavior remains a recurring market feature. Traders keep volunteering to hold the bag, which points to poor risk discipline and late-cycle chasing. 3

₿ Crypto & Liquidity

• Bitcoin weakness is better explained by liquidity pressure than by MSTR selling. Bank reserves had started falling, Bitcoin ETF flows had seen multiple days of large net outflows, and stablecoin issuance had dropped sharply. MSTR selling 32 BTC was likely just the sentiment straw, not the core driver. 4

• Bitcoin is back at a key inflection point. The recent base/reversal near $66,000 drove a rally into the $82,000s, then price rejected and round-tripped back to $66K. That makes $66K the line to watch. 5

• A crypto treasury CEO publicly calling for that same crypto to rise should be treated as talking the book. The incentive stack is obvious, so the signal needs a heavy discount. 6

🚀 IPOs & SpaceX

• SpaceX targeting an IPO at $135 per share comes with an important float dynamic: Elon Musk’s shares would remain locked up for 366 days after the IPO, reducing insider-selling pressure during the first year. 7

• The SpaceX employee/family allocation of 5% of IPO shares is being misunderstood. A private allocation does not automatically mean no lock-up, instant liquidity, or immediate wealth creation; U.S. IPO mechanics matter. 8

☀️ Solar Manufacturing

• $TE’s lamination process is more than a production step. Heat, vacuum pressure, and precision engineering seal glass, EVA, and solar cells into a durable module, supporting the company’s push to become a leader in American solar manufacturing. 9