🌍 Macro Reset: Iran, Oil, Fed Path

• The U.S.–Iran ceasefire memorandum looks less like a one-off headline and more like a negotiated truce pattern. The key read: the delay from June 14 was political optics — Iran did not want to hand Trump a birthday gift. The structure resembles last year’s U.S.–China trade war truce, implying geopolitical risk premium may start getting repriced rather than extended. 1

• The ceasefire plus Hormuz Strait reopening forces a macro playbook reset. The prior market setup had leaned heavily into elevated rate-hike expectations this year; easing energy-route risk weakens that inflation impulse and can shift pricing back toward a less hawkish path. 2

• Warsh’s first FOMC has a clean dovish setup: hold rates steady, talk softer, and frame easing Iran tensions as a path toward lower inflation and eventual cuts. If that lands, risk assets could make a fast round trip back to all-time highs. 3

📈 Trading Positioning & Swing Setups

• Dip-buying was active last week, with fresh swing exposure added in $TE and $CRWV. The key is not the overnight green tape, but whether the market can confirm after last week’s key bounces over the next 5 days. 4

• $MU remains a swing hold, with an aggressive upside target of $1400. This is a high-conviction momentum stance rather than a passive hold. 5

💡 Tech & AI Hardware Equities

• Coherent Corp. #COHR is operating in one of the best possible states for the business. The catch is valuation: it is already expensive, and the market has priced the current strength generously. Bullish fundamentals, but not a cheap tape. 6

🔗 Tokenized Equities & Perps

• U.S. stock token perpetuals are moving from niche crypto rails into mainstream brokerage visibility. Moomoo integrating Hyperliquid on-chain perpetual contract data marks a step toward broader adoption, making tokenized equity derivatives more accessible inside traditional trading apps. 7