📈 Semiconductor & AI Hardware

• $NVDA looks oddly behind the tape. $SOXX, $SMH, $INTC, and $AMD are all printing fresh ATHs, while $NVDA is still not close to a new ATH. That divergence is the key signal, not the headline strength in semis. 1

• The hot trade in PCB / ABF / substrates / upstream materials is not just momentum chasing. The bullish framework had already been laid out in Bernstein’s early-May deep-dive report, which makes the current rally look more like delayed price discovery than random hype. 2

🚀 SpaceX / IPO Tape

• SpaceX ripping after IPO still fits classic bull-market IPO behavior. With the added tailwind from the announced U.S.-Iran ceasefire, risk appetite is even stronger. Compared with other small- and mid-cap IPOs, SpaceX’s move actually looks restrained. 3

• SpaceX night trading has already broken above $215, up 60% in less than two trading days from the IPO price. Once options open next year, more longs may pile into calls, shorts will likely start testing the other side, and large holders may sell covered calls to manage risk. The tape could get much more two-sided. 4

• The real question for SPCX is whether it can dodge the post-pandemic IPO curse. IPOs have historically lagged comparable non-IPO stocks in their first year, and that drag has become more persistent and severe recently. From 1980-2024, IPOs averaged a 19% first-day “pop,” but the later performance problem remains the overhang. 5

🧠 Mega-Cap Valuation

• Meta is being priced at one of its cheapest valuation levels in recent years, with forward PE below 18x. Under an extremely bearish scenario, the target price is still $580, roughly near the current price. That means the market has already baked in a very pessimistic setup; even a small fundamental improvement could trigger a valuation rerating. 6

🤖 AI Compute & Model Capacity

• OpenAI capacity signals look suspicious. 5.5 pro web started auto-routing to 5.3 mini, and Codex is showing 5.5 at capacity. The key read-through: either real compute tightness is hitting users, or a 5.6 launch may be near. 7