Original Viewpoint Summary

📉 Macro & Cross-Asset Risk

• USD/EUR looks late-cycle on the move. The stretched rising channel now reads more like an exhaustion leg than a clean new impulse, so the setup is turning bearish rather than breakout-friendly. 1

• Markets look fragile, but Trump and the Fed are likely to keep risk assets propped up into the midterms. The real bear market window is framed as autumn 2026 through late 2027 or early 2028. 2

• The Korea-led selloff is not just about the tax-reform headline. The deeper pressure stack is fivefold: Warsh Fed repricing, potential DXY upside breakout, quarter-end pension rebalancing plus CTA mechanical flows, AI token economics audits, and Treasury TGA rebuilding + issuance liquidity drain. 3

🇨🇳 China Macro & Fiscal Policy

• The Bloomberg take on China “cutting the deficit” looks like headline bait. The real issue is slower-than-expected fiscal spending, tied to project approval/start delays and less urgency to ease after strong Q1 data plus still-solid Q2 exports and production. Revenue details are mixed: tax revenue 4.4%, VAT 6.2%, personal income tax 12%, stamp duty 35.8%, but consumption tax -3.1% and corporate income tax only 0.2%. 4

🇰🇷 Korea / KOSPI Selloff

• KOSPI weakness is being driven by positioning and policy risk, not a single trigger. Korean leverage has run too hot, profit-taking is hitting ahead of Micron earnings as buyside expectations look stretched, and lawmakers are discussing new taxes. 5

🤖 AI / Semiconductor / Software Infrastructure

• $PLTR pushing Ontology into $ZETA is more than a partnership headline. It is another sign that Palantir is trying to embed Ontology deeper into commercial AI infrastructure, especially where enterprises need AI workflows with risk controls. 6

📊 Single-Name Trading Setups

• $SPCX is still called overvalued junk, but the trade setup has flipped short-term tactical. After getting crushed and becoming very oversold, it now looks attractive for a bounce trade rather than a long-term hold. 7

🧠 Market Methodology

• Technical Analysis should not be reduced to “lines on a chart.” The real edge is reading market behavior and participant psychology. Chartists are technicians, but technicians do not have to be chartists. 8