🔍 Original Viewpoint Summary

🏦 Fed / Macro Setup

• FOMC June minutes: the real alpha is not the headline itself, but the details behind the SEP dot plot’s 3.8% median. The market has been over-indexing on that number, so the key is to unpack what it actually reflects rather than trade it mechanically. 1

• FOMC dots may be stale: the June projections likely leaned on data and trends from before the U.S.–Iran memorandum was signed. That creates a potential expectation gap. The committee chose the conservative route by using prior data, leaving room for future revisions if post-memorandum conditions shift. 2

🤖 AI / Mega-Cap Tech

• $NVDA still looks like a hold, not a trim. Wall Street is even more bullish, with an average target price of 300 and nearly 50% upside. The next catalyst should come from mega-cap tech earnings, which are expected to keep sending positive demand signals for Nvidia. 3

• Meta is being underestimated. The bearish take that Zuckerberg is no longer fit to run Meta misses the fundamentals: revenue is still growing 26% YoY, gross margin is 81%, and net margin is 33%. That cash machine gives him room to fund new bets like the AI prediction market app Arena and the closed-source model Muse. 4

• Meta is attractive at the current level despite smaller position sizing versus Nvidia and Tesla. The risk/reward looks compelling enough to stay on the radar. 5

💾 Semiconductors / Positioning

• $AVGO thesis remains intact after the June earnings deep dive. The stock dropped into the previously mapped three add zones, allowing position build-out. Current average cost: $380. 6

🧠 China Macro Research / Intellectual Capital

• Gao Shanwen’s value goes beyond forecasting skill. The real scarcity is his mix of top-tier macro expertise, intellectual independence, and willingness to speak plainly in a highly commercialized, short-term macro research industry. That kind of research backbone is becoming harder to find. 7