Kimi Pause Reinforces AI Compute Bottleneck Trade

Original Viewpoint Summary

Kimi K3 should not be read as bearish for compute. The pushback is simple: stronger models can tighten, not loosen, the compute bottleneck. 1
$DELL stays on the AI leadership shortlist. Nobody knows where the AI trade goes next, but if the next move is higher, $DELL has the relative strength profile to lead. 2
For domestic AI models, the real stress test is not benchmark chatter. It is whether servers blow up, whether subscription plans get suspended, and whether capacity runs out. Everything else is noise. 3
Kimi pausing new C-end subscriptions confirms the core AI-chain thesis: model upgrades are pulling forward user demand, compute supply is still short, and the AI supply chain remains in play. 4
AI power delivery has multiple investable layers. Key names include $CAT for backup generation, $GEV for grid equipment and gas turbines, $ETN for switchgear / ATS / electrical distribution, and $HUBB for grid and power distribution components. 5

Late June marked a local low for Mag-7 when fears peaked that AI spending could not justify ROI. After the capex trade became crowded over the next 3-weeks, the setup shifted again. The next leg likely sees both Spenders and Receivers rally together, instead of the prior Receivers > Spenders regime. 6 7

$NFLX has been a major laggard versus $LUV since June 2025. $NFLX is down -50% since hitting an ATH in June 2025 and -24% ytd, while $LUV is up +50% since June 2025 and +17% ytd, beating both SPY and QQQ. The relative-performance narrative needs the correct facts. 8
$NOK is deeply washed out technically. RSI is the most oversold since the April 2025 Liberation Day lows, the entire candlestick sits below the Bollinger Bands, and there is mini support near $10ish. 9
$ADBE is starting to wake up after a brutal software drawdown. A near-term 200dma kiss is the key technical level to watch. 10

$MELI has a World Cup-driven ad upside setup. Programmatic CPMs are inflecting in LatAm, led by Argentina and Brazil, which could drive a material beat in high-margin ad revenue versus Q2/Q3 consensus. Earnings are due Aug 5th AMC. 11