📈 AI Capex Cycle & Semis

• $GOOG’s +80% cloud growth was not enough to stop semis from selling off because the market is keying on capex digestion, growth acceleration, and avoiding negative FCF. The bull case is not “spend less”; it is finding the middle ground where hyperscalers keep investing while semis still hold up. $META and $AMZN earnings next week become the next checkpoints. 1

• The core AI investment framework is the “time lag.” Cash goes out first through capex, capacity comes online later, orders convert into revenue after that, and profit plus free cash flow show up last. Google already fits this pattern, and Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta may show the same setup next week. 2

🧠 Open-Source AI & Platform Power

• The open-source AI camp is becoming a values test. Google, OpenAI, and Meta have joined the pro-open-source side, while xAI may follow after Elon Musk amplified Jensen Huang’s stance. The pushback is that calling for open weights while also asking NVIDIA to open-source CUDA and GPU drivers exposes a deeper tension: open-source rhetoric gets messy when platform control is on the table. 3

⚡ Industrial & Power Equipment Valuation

• GE Vernova Inc. $GEV’s 2026 Q2 setup looks strong because demand is hot and management is still showing operating discipline. The risk is valuation. The market is pricing in too many things going right at the same time. If even one part misses the script, the high multiple gets stress-tested fast. 4