📈 Market Psychology & Macro Setup

• Crypto still has constructive price action. Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding above the lows, but resistance remains the key wall. No clean breakout yet. Still trying. 1

• Big rallies tend to breed peak euphoria — “going to a million” narratives. Deep pullbacks tend to trigger capitulation — “going to zero” calls. Better setup is to keep cash ready and buy quality names near demand zones instead of chasing sentiment extremes. 2

• The coming week has trend-setting potential. The tape has multiple catalysts stacked together: massive earnings reports, updates on US/Iran, and FOMC/Presser on Wednesday. Volatility risk is live. 3

🧠 AI, Semis & Data-Center Supply Chain

• CXMT valuation looks stretched. Nomura initiated coverage with a RMB 116 price target and argued for a 20x P/E multiple — twice Micron’s valuation. That implies a 13.4x jump from the IPO price and roughly RMB 7.76 trillion market cap. The read-through: the pricing is getting absurd. 4

• Intel has a quietly important data point in the 10-Q: Server CPU ASPs Up 48%. That suggests mix/pricing in server CPUs may be much better than the headline narrative implies. $INTC 5

• Delta Electronics reportedly signing a US$2 billion SiC deal with Infineon matters because SiC is key to Nvidia’s 800VDC power architecture for AI data centers. If true, the deal cuts against the rumored delay narrative around Nvidia 800VDC. 6

• The Nvidia/OpenAI financing structure points to a broader theme: backstops are becoming part of the AI infrastructure buildout. The market is moving from chip demand stories to balance-sheet engineering for mega data centers. 7

🚀 Single-Stock Setups

• $NBIS could reclaim $200 easily tomorrow, with a possible push into the $205-$210’s. Clean near-term momentum call. 8

• $TSLA is at a major technical gut-check. The last two candlesticks closed completely outside the lower Bollinger Bands, while the overnight bounce has been weak. $300 needs to hold. The stance flips more constructive into weakness: liked at $400, stronger buy interest at $300, aggressive conviction at $250. 9

🛡️ Defense Tech & IPO Watch

• Anduril likely comes public at well over a $100B valuation. The founder profile adds to the marketability: 33 years old, almost half Alex Karp’s age, highly unconventional public image, and still able to show up on CNBC as-is. Defense tech is turning into a personality-driven capital-markets story too. 10