📌 Expectations of 3.2T Optical Module Access Restrictions Build, US Domestic Supply Chain Sees Revaluation
Market expectations have recently emerged that the United States may restrict market access for Chinese optical modules starting from the next-generation 3.2T specification, without affecting current mainstream 800G and 1.6T deployments. Catalyzed by this industry expectation, US optical communications vendors Coherent and Lumentum both saw single-day gains exceeding 10%.
Setting the potential restriction threshold at 3.2T reflects cloud vendors’ cost trade-offs when expanding AI computing power. 800G and 1.6T are currently in the mass-delivery stage; directly cutting off mature suppliers would delay construction cycles for North American data centers and push up capital expenditures. Deferring the threshold to next-generation products not only ensures the continuity of existing cluster construction, but also reserves a technology introduction window for alternatives with roughly 65% domestic manufacturing content, driving incremental market share toward domestic vendors during generational upgrades.
Under this logic, vendors with vertical integration capabilities have gained higher valuation premiums. Taking Coherent as an example, even without factoring in geopolitical policy dividends, under normal business expansion expectations, its revenue is projected to climb from approximately USD 4.7 billion to around USD 19 billion by 2029. The company possesses both underlying laser chip manufacturing and complete downstream optical module packaging capabilities; if access for next-generation products tightens, its vertical positioning will directly translate into a tangible advantage in capturing spillover orders.
It should be noted that this logic is currently primarily based on secondary market policy deductions and has not yet been confirmed by official regulatory documents; the specific timing and scope of policy implementation still require continuous tracking and verification.
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