📌 DRAM Supply Constraints May Keep Memory Tight for Years
AI server order growth is being constrained by insufficient DRAM supply. The post recounts that Dell CEO Michael Dell said an approximately USD 95 billion backlog of AI server orders remains limited by DRAM supply, and that the shortage could worsen further next year. New memory wafer fabs may not significantly increase supply until 2029 to 2030. This means that even if concerns about excess capacity exist further out, the immediate supply bottleneck may persist.
Another analysis explains through product mix why supply may be difficult to replenish quickly: new LPDDR capacity may not increase until 2028, and expanding HBM capacity is also difficult. The post estimates that if HBM consumes about 30% of DRAM wafers, capacity available for other DRAM products may be squeezed, potentially allowing memory makers’ pricing power to last longer.
For memory makers, tight supply is favorable for product prices and revenue, but whether it translates into profits and cash flow also depends on actual capacity, product mix, and price changes. The timelines and wafer share cited above come from social media accounts or forecasts, and are not enough to confirm how long Micron and SK hynix’s pricing power will last, or to determine specific price trends.
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