📌 HBM Demand Upgrade: Can Samsung Capture the Incremental Demand?
Changes in HBM demand are reflected not only in total volume, but also in product mix. One forecast says that by 2027, HBM4 and HBM4E will account for 48% of HBM demand, nearly three times the current share; HBM3E 8-Hi could also double to 17%. This reflects expectations of growing demand for advanced memory needed by next-generation AI chips and ASICs, but these figures are still forecasts, not confirmed orders.
As demand increases, supply capacity and capacity allocation will affect which manufacturers can capture the incremental demand. Another analysis argues that if demand beyond existing arrangements is manufactured by TSMC, TSMC will also have to allocate wafer capacity for Rubin and Rubin Ultra; Samsung owns its own fabs and may therefore be better positioned to meet additional demand. Owning fabs is a potential advantage, but does not mean available capacity or actual orders are already confirmed. It remains to be seen whether Samsung can allocate capacity and supply as needed.
For memory manufacturers, the upgrade in demand mix brings opportunities, but whether it translates into revenue and profit depends on demand for the products materializing, supply capacity, and customer allocation. At present, both assessments come from social media statements and lack validation from primary disclosures or independent data, so they should still be viewed with caution.
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