📌 Lengthening Supply-Demand Gap and Price Hike Expectations Extend Memory Chip Profitability Cycle
The memory chip industry’s boom is spreading from AI-specific memory alone to general-purpose storage, and the duration of product price increases may significantly exceed prior expectations.
In the high-end DRAM sector, the supply-demand gap is exhibiting a prolonged trend. Industry calculations show that by 2027, DRAM supply will need to grow by about 50% to close the gap, but actual bit growth is projected to slow to around 20%. Hard supply constraints coupled with expectations that next-generation HBM4 per-bit prices could double will propel core manufacturers such as Micron Technology and SK Hynix into a new round of stepped price increases.
At the same time, the selling price outlook for the general-purpose NAND market has also seen significant consecutive upward revisions. The latest forecasts lift the QoQ growth expectations for NAND blended selling prices in 3Q26, 4Q26, and 1Q27 to +21%, +17%, and +15%, respectively, compared to prior expectations of +18%, +2%, and 0%. This revision directly overturns market assumptions that general-purpose storage prices would flatten or peak in the second half of 2026.
For chipmakers, the expectation of doubling for HBM4 solidifies profit levels for high-value-added products, while the continuous elevation of NAND selling price expectations expands profit margins across broader product lines. The extent to which future prices are realized will still depend on how well the expansion pace of original manufacturers matches downstream end-market procurement budgets.
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